Taking Chances: Winning with Probability Reprint Edition

There are many textbooks on college-level mathematical probability, but a smaller number of what I call "textbooks lite" aimed at a reader who is willing to work to learn some interesting parts of a subject. This wonderful book teaches the basic calculations in mathematical probability, but with a combination of breadth and concreteness unrivaled by any other book I know. The book consists of short sections, each giving verbal discussion of problems involving probability, games of chance and related material, and deriving solutions using only arithmetic and occasional elementary combinatorics and algebra. It covers an impressive breadth of topics: lotteries, dice and card games, casino games, TV show games, racetrack betting, some game theory (Prisoners Dilemma, Hawk-Dove games, Male-Female reproductive strategies), combined with the basic laws of probability and the familiar birthday and coupon collector's problems. Part of the content is distinctly British rather than American (cricket and snooker; premium bonds; the particular TV shows). In addition to familiar types of elementary probability calculations such as the craps example, there are more elaborate stories and calculations involving strategies as games progress. I particularly like the chapter giving a gentle yet entertaining introduction to two-person game theory.

Highly enjoyable if not all stories resonate. Recommend if you want an edge in board games as well.

Very informative and detailed, full of practical examples

Excellent book. As promised. Arrived in time.

This book has an extremely practical approach, since in each chapter it explains several games and their related probabilities. These related probabilities are of the sort of: when is it advisable to double the bet, when is it advisable to let your opponent "eat" one of your chips in backgammon, how long will it take you on average to get your chip back on the game board, which streets in Monopoly are more likely to be visited by other players and which have a better payback, how high is your chance to win at the lottery, at sports pools, at the races, how can you minimize your losses at casino games like roulette, how likely is it that you will be winning after "n" games or how likely is it that a tennis player will win the match if he has a probability of "p" to win one point.This approach gives the book a special character and keeps your interest on the subject; on the other hand, there is little room for theoretical explanations of the probability basics, so you need to do the calculations done by the author over and over until you figure out the principles behind his math. In the appendices there are a few explanations, but definitely not enough, specially regarding the different probability distributions and when each is better suited. This is not a textbook... The fact that the theory is back in appendices and not in the main text makes the reading a bit more difficult, since you need to jump back and forth between the chapter and the appendix. I tried reading the appendices first but these are not stand alone theory chapters, but refer to specific problems in the main text, which by the way can come from different chapters (different games may require the same probability basics); so you cannot avoid the back and forth between one or more appendices and one or more chapters, add a pencil and a notebook to follow the calculations and you cannot read anymore in bed... Another problem was that some of the British games were unfamiliar to me (like cricket, bridge, etc.), I do not know the rules, what is required to win the game or how the points are assigned, so understanding the underlying probabilities was somewhat difficult. If you are a beginner in this topic, I strongly recommend reading  The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives (Vintage)  first. This books does not require that you perform any calculations but explains the very basics in an easy to understand manner.The chapter on game theory was really interesting; I had already read a bit about these games but had not seen the math that is applied to their solutions. The games explained in this chapter are very simple, so the calculations can be followed easily.I bought this book mainly because Mr. Plous, author of  The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making (McGraw-Hill Series in Social Psychology)  made it quite clear that most people (myself included) are poor at probability and statistical analysis and that people would make more "rational" decisions had they some basic knowledge in these topics. After emphasizing this fact, Mr. Plous did not consider it necessary to explain the math he used in his examples, so I decided to get myself some literature on probability. I am not sure I can take now more rational decisions, but I certainly know now a bit of probability, specially related to gaming, e.g. I had never bothered to calculate the preestablished margin for the casino at the roulette game, now I can calculate how to bet in order to loose my money more slowly and play longer or take my chances in one shot with a 47.5% chance of doubling my fortune.

An excellent account of probability theory. Whilst definitely geared towards gambling it also sheds new light on some fundamental probability topics.The text sometimes does get a little numerical - at the expense of the theoretical - but this is not necessarily a bad thing.The only question I have about the book is why is there no mention of Bayes? Surely a fundamental contributor to probability theory.

While the book is mainly written on probability in games, which has already been covered in many books, the author coveres the basics of probability and coin tossing very nicely. He also covers the theory of dices thoroughly and approaches "Games with few choices" (Game Theory) with great enthusiasm. Finally the chapter "Probability for Lawyers" with it's terms such as the prosecutors fallacy and the defence attorne's fallacy are a must read for every person interested in the fascinating subject of probabiliy. PS: second edition covers now Bayes's theorem (previous readers criticised the author of missing this important theory in the first issue)

This is a very practical book on probability using common games (cards, dice, coin-toss, etc.) as examples. Explanations are thorough without being too technical. The appendices go into more mathematical detail for those so inclined. The author is British so everything has that slant (money in pounds and pence, Grand National, and so on), but that's not a problem. There's a lot of information packed into the 330 pages of this paperback since the type is fairly small.

Die Wurzel der Statistik ist das Glücksspiel. Berufsspieler konnten sich nicht erklären, warum manche Kombinationen häufiger vorkommen als andere. Sie kontaktierten die berühmtesten Mathematiker ihrer Zeit, damit die Licht ins Dunkel bringen.Der Autor hat Beispiele aus der Welt des Glücksspiels zusammen getragen um grundlegende statistische Ideen zu präsentieren. Nachdem ich in Mathematischer Statistik dissertiert habe, kannte ich diese statistischen Konzepte. Ich fand das Buch trotzdem sehr lesenswert, weil mich die Spiele interessiert haben. Ein Teil davon ist very British (z.B. Cricket). Vieles ist aber auch außerhalb des Empire bekannt. Haigh beschränkt sich nicht nur auf klassische Spiele, sondern behandelt etwa auch die Statistik der Millionenshow. Das Buch ist sehr gut lesbar. Es war in den letzten Tagen meine Gute-Nacht-Lektüre.Über den Untertitel "Winning with Probability" kann man diskutieren. Eigentlich zeigt Haigh, dass man bei den meisten Spielen am besten nicht spielt. Das Motto ist eher: Wie verliere ich am wenigsten. Man sollte sich generell kein "How To" Buch erwarten, sondern eine nette Erkundungsreise in die Welt des Spieles und der Statistik.Als Statistikprofi kann ich nicht wirklich beurteilen, wie schwer/leicht sich ein Mathematikmuffel beim Lesen tut. Ich kann mir allerdings kaum vorstellen, dass man die Ergebnisse noch anschaulicher und leichter verständlich bringen kann. Das Buch ist Populärwissenschaft im besten Sinn des Wortes.

I've bought quite a few books on probabilitytheory and stats lately (you can check my other reviews to verify) and I consider this book to be one of the most valuable in my growing collection.Gambling adepts who mostly don't have a clue about the real odds, or miscalculate odds, might find this book very enlightening (or depressing depending on your preassumptions who are most likely to get smashed after reading this book).If you are a mathphobic, you'll find the explications clear without being simplistic, and the practical value is excellent.Adding an appendix in which all the calculations or concepts are mathematically backed up is an excellent surplus. This way, you can adopt the formula's needed to many different questions which involve getting a clear objective view on chance in a wide range of fields.The title however, might bring false hope to the desperate ones. If anything, the author prooves beyond reasonable doubt how low the odds are exactly you could actually win big in popular gambling games such as the lottery or casino games.In other cases, like investment, or sports betting, applying the knowledge in this book could be profitable. But, as the name 'probabilitytheory' implies: probability does not equal certainty. However, if you decide to gamble, one can better maximise his chances, what this book will teach you.If you, like me, thought math and stats were simply not your cup of tea, have no fear. You won't be banging your head against the wall struggling with complicated formula's of which you are trying to figure out the symbols used. The author understands very well the art of explaining the complex in an approachable way which will keep you interested.If you are a layman and would only buy one book on probabilitytheory, but can not decide which one: I can promise you from what I have read myself so far:this is surely a very good way to start.

This book offers a clear and interesting introduction to the concept of probability. However, it's actually quite hard to read due to numerous typographical errors. Hopefully these will be corrected in a future revision.

This book was not for me. Card counters might feasibly love it. The author simply revels and frolics in unfolding long calculations in prose. There are a lot of numerical questions answered here: stratagems for backgammon, Monopoly, The Price Is Right; what are the most important points to win in a tennis match; how long you'll have to wait before getting a Royal Flush in poker. The section on game theory seemed quite interesting but I didn't understand it. The section on horse racing oddly focuses on 'Dettori Day'. I didn't learn much from the 373 pages here and I've read a lot of it before in other books. There's very little comment on how you might profit from the maths in this book. I don't doubt the mathematical accuracy of it for a minute but it should really have been a Dictionary of Probability. I think if you enjoy this book you've an affinity for mathematical thinking but I found the book very dull.

Bought this book years ago when I was starting out doing sports betting for a living. There are a lot of books on sports betting that just rehash what has gone before in a vague way and don't get down to the nitty gritty. But John Haigh gives lots of practical examples of how to calculate probabilities in different sports. And it's an entertaining read along the way. Thoroughly recommend it.